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There has been a lot of research and information on the state of the nation in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections: governmental attempts to disenfranchise voters, lawsuits to protect and deny voting rights, demands for proof of citizenship, gerrymandering, Supreme Court decisions, polling, and much, much more.
This midterm election is the most important event in this century and perhaps since the end of World War II. America is at a crossroads. Whatever is decided and occurs in the next few weeks and months will change the nation forever.
University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape has studied political violence for 30 years. He has advised presidents, both Republican and Democrat. Here he is being interviewed by Chris Williamson on his YouTube Channel in the episode, “This Will Be the Most Violent Election of Our Lifetime.”
Professor Pape makes four predictions and observations for the next four months and beyond:
- Demographic change: +/- 49% white minority by 2045. Both the left and the right feel threatened.
- Legitimacy: if the election is close.
- Focal point: January 3, 2027. Who will be seated? What will the losers do?
- Prolonged violent opposition: Trump declaring a national emergency, sending in armed federal agents, even the military, seizing voting machines.
Let’s examine them one-by-one.
Demographic change: I recently wrote a column about this issue using the source “The Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point” by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt. Professor Pape repeats the same information. Both are carefully researched.
Here’s a brief summary: Since the founding of this nation in 1776, white elite adult males have ruled this nation. Demographic change is ending this dynamic. Fewer white children are being born. Immigration is increasing the number of Latinos. By approximately 2045, non-Latino whites will make up less than 50% of the population. For the white elites this demographic change threatens both those on the left and the right. Both groups are afraid of losing or not gaining power.
If the midterms are close, both sides will challenge the Legitimacy of the election, claiming the election was rigged. Neither side will accept the results if they lose.
This crisis will reach what Pape calls the Focal Point on Jan. 3 2027. Who will control Congress will be the issue. That’s when control of the House of Representatives is decided.
The result will be Prolonged Violent Opposition which could last for months and possibly years. During this time there will likely be violent demonstrations, assassinations and murders, a possible attempted coup, and domestic terrorist attacks. It will be chaotic.
Will Pape’s predictions come true? Or partially true? What is clear is that President Trump has been working very hard to rig the midterms: Gerrymandering, attacking, arresting, imprisoning, and deporting thousands of people — an attempt to rid the nation of non-whites. Court battles have ensued. Trump has tried unsuccessfully to take control of the midterm elections, so far.
Constitutionally, only the states and Congress have the power. Republicans in Congress have sat on their hands and allowed Trump to get away with his abuse of power. SCOTUS has acted to help him on many occasions, and at other times, to limit his power grabs.
Legacy Media is more and more controlled by billionaires favorable to Trump and are buying up major networks.
Some governors like Gavin Newsom of California have taken the lead to limit and challenge Trump’s power grab. Others, like Governor Bob Ferguson of our state, have been largely silent. Democratic leaders and attorneys general are war gaming possible attempts to strip the states of their electoral power.
Trump is unpopular nationally due to rising inflation, the elective war in Iran, corruption, and dissing our allies while cozying up to dictators. He knows he is unpopular and is willing to follow his own advice: “Cheat like Hell, just like the Democrats!”
These next few months will be trying for the nation. Be prepared for uncertainty and national violence. Hopefully, we in Washington will be observers, but that is not certain.
As Marc Elias, a prominent pro-democracy attorney who has fought Trump in court and won most of his legal battles, has advised: Volunteer to work at the polls, take part in peaceful demonstrations like “No Kings” scheduled on Oct. 17, and vote.
We the People will be the ones to decide our national and individual fate. Just be prepared.
Richard Elfers is a columnist, a former Enumclaw City Council member and a Green River College professor.
